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Friday, August 12, 2011

FOREX ANALYSIS


ANALYSIS IN FOREX TRADING
In online FOREX trading rests on our ability to analyze price movements correctly and accurately, essentially "buy at the bottom and sell at the top"
Playing the FOREX without knowing an analysis means we do of gambling in, and obviously with gambling then it will lead to a loss, don't expect to benefit in the long run, if they make a profit, usually because the luck factor and will not last long, in a matter of weeks to months, all we could run out of funds because of the lack of knowledge of analysis, so it can be concluded that knowing the analysis of the movement of price movement is an absolute unknown to the players of FOREX
Analysis in FOREX trading is divided into two ways:
• Fundamental analysis
• Technical analysis
Fundamental news that gave birth to fundamental analysis is the real mover of the market, rather than technical analysis, fundamental analysis can predict the movement known as significant and is caused by a sudden discharge of important news, weakness in the fundamental analysis is needed time to obtain information, often subjective because it involves many people's opinions and more suitable to be applied on a long term trading period
Technical analysis for factors known to exact and applicable to any method of trading (day trading, weekly, monthly, yearly trading), weakness in technical analysis is needed more data to support accurate prediction, relies heavily on the ability of Chart,every chart has a different method and each is not necessarily suitable to be applied to one another and difficult to apply in an inefficient market, no single method is perfect both fundamental and technical, here the experience of the self plays an important role, you can combine both analysis here (the fundamental and technical) in order to obtain the best trading system
Fundamental analysis is the analysis based view of economic development of a State, such as rising interest rates, inflation, non-farm payrolls, and others, trade in Asian session usually not show the movement of prices (flat), the price usually starts to move when entering the European session and the peak movement usually occurs during the American session, the economic news as U.S. session opened (U.S. Open) are usually highly anticipated market players / traders, because price movements can be up to 100-200 points, if you like the hustle and speed to be a major factor, then look at where open market because the number of fundamental issues and news that can cause prices to move with very active
Technical analysis is the analysis of price movements by looking at charts of price movements before (5 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, or 1 day ago) are usually equipped with indicator to look at price trends and to decide when to enter the market (Entry) and when to out of the market (Exit), the basic calculation of the technical analysis is a mathematical fact that most of them are statistical and the science of chaos theory (pattern recognition), thus the results obtained may be a number of exact and definite, something that can not be given by the analysis fundamental, some technical analysts even said: "technical analysis trading is a cheat", if you prefer better to avoid technical analysis fundamental news that appears on the open market, it did when the market is trading at close to getting the best results
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis argues that the price moves because of the news and government policy, and the market response to news issued, the basis of fundamental analysis is the information, the information quickly, many from a trusted source, and the ability to forecast (forecasting) the market reaction to news issued, is a vital component of the absolute must-have, in the absence of the above factors, it is difficult for a fundamentalist take advantage of news that is useful to obtain a profit, most of the fundamental news that play a role in determining rise and fall of currency values
​​is the economic news or a security issue that is going on, for example: a terrorist attack or bomb explosion, in these conditions can be readily lost investor confidence and resulted in weaker currency quickly, the facts reveal that the conditions of war-affected Countries (unsafe or chaotic) effect on the value of its currency is declining, while the economic news classified as a very important news such as interest rate decision (interest rate decision), and also report payment of salaries outside the agricultural sector (non-farm payrolls). both this news may lead to price moves quickly and a big spike, other information such as unemployment, consumer confidence index and the producer or any other kind of news to determine whether a currency will be strengthened or weakened against other currency pairs, but still prices are formed in the hands of buyers and sellers, is the market size, not a right or wrong in news, what is needed is seller and buyer know the majority of reactions to the news that appears, when it emerged as the economic news is reported that the currency of a country tend to weaken the fundamental analysis is tasked to analyze the news that will pop up and its relation with the market reaction, sometimes the market is often driven by emotional moment , without any economic news, there is often an increase or decrease in the price action of currency, usually is caused by a shift in demand supply, because there are certain parties who perform acts of purchase or sale in bulk, by measuring the demand supply then we can know where prices will move, with increased demand (demand) while the supply (offer) fixed, then the price will soon be creeping up, and otherwise, when the supply increases but demand remains, then the prices will start to fall because many goods in the market
• news demand / demand is bullish, the market price movements look as if they would go down but actually going up
• news supply / supply is bearish, the market price movement as if to rise, but actual prices will fall
in trading every day you have to actively find the website up to date to obtain information of fundamental news State whose currency is traded FOREX market, register your email to the FOREX site for news that will be sent directly to your email as well as the association forum trader, you can also quickly see the news that will pop up and analysis on world money markets on the website:
News medium that is expected volatility, is news that can make the price move actively around 30 points, when the news emerged, while the news that high volatility is expected, the news can make currencies move 50-150 points, when the news was release
50 Characteristic of news affecting the exchange rate of US dollar is:
1.   U.S. non-farm payrolls rose US dollar strengthens (the effect of 100-200 pips)
2.   USA trade balance rose US dollar strengthens (the effect of 70-120 pips)
3.   U.S. interest rate rises statement US dollar stronger (effect 100 pips)
4.   U.S. durable good orders rose US dollar strengthens (the effect of 50-100 pips)
5.   Trichet, Bernanke, fukui speak US dollar strengthens (the effect of 30-100 pips)
6.   Producer price index ,US dollar strengthens (the effect of 50-60 pips)
7.   PPI excl, food and energy US dollar strengthens (the effect of 50-60 pips)
8.   Consumer price index (CPI) down US dollar strengthens (the effect of 50-60 pips)
9.   CPI excl, food and energy US dollar strengthens (the effect of 50-60 pips)
10.  Unemployment rate down US dollar strengthens (the effect of 30-50 pips)
11.  Average earnings rose US dollar strengthens (the effect of 30-50 pips)
12.  Balance of payments rose US dollar strengthens (the effect of 30-50 pips)
13.  Budget deficit down US dollar strengthens (the effect of 30-50 pips)
14.  Business Inventories down US dollar Stronger (effect 30-50 pips)
15.  Capacity Utilization up US dollar Stronger (the effect of 30-50 pips)
16.  Car Sales up US dollar Stronger (the effect of 30-50 pips)
17.  PMI Chicago Up US dollar Stronger (30-50 pips effect)
18.  Construction Spending Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
19.  Consumer Confidence Index  Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
20.  Consumer Credit (CI) Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
21.  Consumer Spending (expenditures) US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
22.  Cost of Living Increases US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
23.  Current Account Down US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
24.  Corporate Profit Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
25.  Deflation Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
26.  Discount Rate Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
27.  Economic Monetary System (EMS) Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
28.  Factory Orders Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
29.  Federal Budget Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
30.  Federal Reserve Fund Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
31.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
32.  Gross National Product (GNP) Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
33.  Housing Start Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
34.  Industrial Productions Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
35.  Invisible Trade Down US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
36.  Jobless Claims Rise US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
37.  Leading Indicators Rise US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
38.  Money Supply (M1, M2, M3, M4) Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
39.  The National Association Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
40.  NAPM Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
41.  Personal Expenditure Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
42.  Personal Income Down US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
43.  Prime Rate Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
44.  Public Sector Debt Repayment Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
45.  Trade Sales Down US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
46.  Trade Deficit Down US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
47.  Trade Weighted Index Down US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
48.  Unit Labor Costs Increases US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
49.  Value Added Tax Increases US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)
50.  Visible Trade Up US dollar Stronger (Effect 30-50 pips)

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